The check
Did we get it right?
Pick an outcome and a period: below are the finished matches, from the highest probability down, each with the score and whether it happened. The dot is there to read quickly, but you can redo the maths yourself from the scores.
Outcome
Period
No finished match to compare in this period.
We only count finished matches for which we had written a forecast before kick-off. Results reach us a few hours after the final whistle, so tonight’s matches show up here tomorrow.
These are the probabilities published before kick-off, never touched afterwards. If you want the same count across the whole archive, band by band, have a look at Calibration