The check
Did we get it right?
Pick an outcome and a period: below are the finished matches, from the highest probability down, each with the score and whether it happened. The dot is the shortcut, the score is the proof — you can redo the maths yourself.
Outcome
Period
No finished match to compare in this period.
Only finished matches count, and only those with a prediction written before kick-off: that single condition is what makes this a check rather than a story. Results land a few hours after the final whistle, so tonight’s matches show up here tomorrow.
These are the probabilities published before kick-off and never rewritten. The same measure, across the whole archive and band by band, is in Calibration